Can Bejing weaponise the Brahmaputra?

 Pakistan raised the idea that China, as the upper riparian country, might stop the flow of the Brahmaputra after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).  Is this an empty threat from Pakistan, or a real one?


Experts dismiss any possibility of China blocking or diverting water, saying that a bigger worry should be that the massive dam (one of the biggest in the world) coming up in a calamity-prone area in China-controlled Tibet (made by China). Nilanjan Ghosh highlights that the Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra in Tibet) only forms 10-15% of the Brahmaputra volume, as it is majorly rain-fed in India.


"Any attempt to divert the flow would be counterproductive as it would result in upstream floods because of sediment accumulation," said Ghosh, Vice President of Development Studies at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), to India Today Digital. (from India Today Digital)


 According to the 2016 book, River Morphodynamics and Stream Ecology of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by Chinese experts, the annual sediment load of the Yarlung-Tsangpo near Nuxia in Tibet is about 30 million metric tonnes (MMT), heavily superseded by the 735 MMT of sediment load at in Bangladesh and the ~ 1 billion metric tonne load in India. A stream, like the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, cannot carry the sediment load. The Brahmaputra carries most of the sediment in both India and Bangladesh, contributing to the area's arability and fertility. Hence, proving no significant damage from blocking the Yarlung Tsangpo.


Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has responded to Pakistan's claims with facts,  that the river “grows in India, not shrinks". Assam Chief Minister also said that if China were to reduce water flow (into the Brahmaputra), it may help lessen Assam’s annual floods in number and intensity. 


“China contributes only approximately 30-35% of the Brahmaputra’s total flow, mostly through glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall. The remaining 65-70% is generated within India, thanks to torrential monsoon rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya; major tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, Kopili; and additional inflows from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers such as Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi,” he posted on X. (from the Indian Express)


The Brahmaputra is uncontrollable by the Chinese, and maybe instead of supporting empty Pakistani threats, they should work on making 'the world's largest dam' safer for the people living around it in China-controlled Tibet.


For all these reasons, Pakistan can't rely on China to drag India down in the water race; the only thing Pakistan can count on China for is rundown and used weapons. China can't turn off the taps for India. As for China-controlled Tibet, the weather forecast is calamitous with a side of floods.

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